News & Analysis

FX Analysis – USD and yields surge on hot CPI, Gold down, AUD and NZD pummelled

13 October 2023 By Lachlan Meakin

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USD surged higher on Thursday, with DXY having its second biggest daily gain since March, reclaiming the big figure at 106 and holding above its trendline support. Hotter than expected CPI readings with the M/M rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%) and Y/Y coming in at 3.7% , above the 3.6% consensus got the Dollar rally going, but a dismal US 30yr auction later in the session saw long end yields surging higher, further boosting the Greenback.

Cyclical currencies AUD, NZD and GBP were the underperformers, driven lower by a sour risk sentiment and USD strength rather than anything currency specific. AUDUSD and NZDUSD tumbling to 1-week lows and nearing the bottoms of their recent ranges of 0.6308 and 0.5926, respectively, from earlier peaks near the top of the range of 0.6430 and 0.6025.

GBPUSD also tumbled, breaking below 1.2200 amid the aforementioned negative risk sentiment and surging USD. There were some mixed UK macro releases and BoE members highlighting the extent of possible rate hikes to come but this had little effect as GBPUSD fell to a session low of 1.2173 a whisker above Monday’s low of 1.2163.

Gold finished the session down but considering USD strength and surging yields held up admirably as haven flows helped lessen the damage. XAUUSD also finding some support at the 78.6 Fib level at 1866.

Today’s calendar is fairly light, Chinese CPI and US consumer sentiment being the highlights.

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