Economic Updates

Economic Updates

Where are we? What are the lessons from May?

For years we have been told that ‘value’ will have its day again. The reasoning is vast, deep value in value versus overpriced growth, pricing in risk is stretched, the ‘free money decade is over, and growth will be left holding the bag. You can take your pick as to what reasoning you use regarding this market conundrum, but the conclusion is...

June 5, 2024
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The week ahead – RBNZ rate decision, USD, AUD and JPY inflation data

FX markets enter the new week with market sentiment firmly risk-on with all-time highs seen in US and Japanese indexes after a blowout earnings report from AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) sent stocks surging. Ahead this week we have key inflation data out of the US, Australia and Japan along with a RBNZ rate decision which is certainly in play. The ...

February 26, 2024
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The Week Ahead – US CPI, Aussie employment and the charts to watch

With FX markets being pushed and pulled by market participants betting on when the major central banks are going to start cutting rates (or not) FX traders have some important risk events that will influence those expectations to negotiate this week. CPI and retail sales headline in the US, Aussie traders have the January Jobs report and for Sterli...

February 12, 2024
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Up next: Non-Farm Payroll announcement

It’s the beginning of a new year and a new month which means that the latest US Non-Farm Payroll data will be published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The US jobs data for December will be released at 1:30PM London time on Friday. Click here to find out why the Non-Farm Payroll announcement is one of the most closely watched economic...

January 4, 2024
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FOMC incoming – DXY, Oil analysis

In one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings this year , the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the fed funds target range at 5.25-5.5% in today’s FOMC meeting with futures markets pricing in virtually no chance of the December hike the Fed had previously pencilled in via their last “Dot Plot” projections. What will move markets w...

December 13, 2023
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The Week Ahead – FOMC, ECB, BoE – the charts to watch XAUUSD , DXY

Markets enter the new week with serious risk-on momentum, having seen US equities finishing the last 6 weeks with gains, but ahead we have a massive week in data that could put that narrative to the test. A lot of this positivity in risk assets has come on the back or markets pricing in dovish pivots from the Fed and other major central banks an...

December 11, 2023
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Up next: Non-Farm Payrolls announcement

It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the US Non-Farm Payrolls figures will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data for November will be released at 1:30PM London time on Friday. Click here to find out why the Non-Farm Payrolls announcement is one of the most closely watched economic events in ...

December 7, 2023
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Market Analysis – USD surges, AUD hit by RBA, Oil and Gold continue decline

USD was bid in Tuesdays session with DXY finding strong support at its 200 Day MA and pushing up to test the big 104 figure before losing steam. DXY did have a sharp dip on big miss in the JOLTS employment data though a strong ISM Services PMI figure offset that and saw DXY rally for the rest of the session. Interestingly yields didn’t recover th...

December 6, 2023
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Market Analysis – USD and yields rise on Fedspeak, Oil tumbles on OPEC+

USD bounced back in Thursday’s session with the US Dollar Index (DXY) recouping the weeks losses after finding some technical support at its 61.8 Fib level and an extreme oversold RSI reading. Fundamentally, some hawkish Fedspeak from voting member Daly, where she commented that it is too soon to call the end on rate hikes and the battle against ...

December 1, 2023
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FX Analysis – Euro softens on cool CPI readings, Gold rallies again, NZD surges on RBNZ

The Euro was softer In Wednesdays US session with EURUSD failing to hold above the psychological 1.10 level with cooler than expected inflation readings out of Spain and Germany weighing on the single currency.  EURGBP dropped for the fifth straight session and setting new November lows. Comments from ECB member Stournaras pushing back on April ra...

November 30, 2023
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The Week Ahead – Charts to watch EURUSD, Crude Oil, Gold

Global markets enter the new week in a risk on tone with as market participants are positioning for no more rate hikes out of the Federal Reserve and pricing in cuts from Q2 2024. In last week’s low volatility, holiday shortened week this translated to a steady rise in equities (DOW hitting 3-month highs), a steady decline in the US dollar (DXY h...

November 27, 2023
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APAC Open – Equites and USD up, Gold down, Oil takes a wild ride.

US equities continued to climb in a broad rally ahead of the Thanksgiving break I Wednesdays session  with the Dow Jones index  up almost 200 points and hitting its highest level since mid-August. In FX markets, the USD was bid after better than expected employment data saw Jobless claims come in at 209k vs the expected 226k, US consumer s...

November 23, 2023
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Tech leads US equity rally, USD and yields fall again, AUDUSD breaks out, USDJPY breaks down

US equities enjoyed a broad rally, with tech leading after news that recently ousted OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had been snapped up by Microsoft, the news helped MSFT and AI Chip maker NVDA stock rally over 2% each and pushing the Nasdaq to be the top performing US index. More weak data out of the US as well with leading indicators missing expect...

November 21, 2023
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The Week Ahead – Charts to watch , AUDUSD, Dow, Gold

Last week price action hammered home the narrative that markets are still dancing to the tune of the Fed, with a broad rally in equities and a fall in yields and the USD being kickstarted by a cooler than expected US CPI figure and accelerating on further weak US economic data. We are looking for a quieter week ahead after the recent big swings,...

November 20, 2023
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Gold and Oil surge on Geopolitical risk, USD pumps and dumps as Fed turns dovish

USD had a volatile session on Monday seeing two-way price action, with geopolitical risks from the conflict in the Middle East seeing DXY gap higher on the open and rally to a high of 106.60. The move higher dramatically reversed after dovish Fed commentary from both FOMC members Logan and Jefferson who acknowledged the recent move higher in yields...

October 10, 2023
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