Forex
Asia Morning FX – AUD and EUR surge, USD takes a hit post FOMC, BoJ ahead
USD tumbled in Thursday’s session in the wake of a dovish Powell presser (relative to statement/dot plots) saw the Dollar bears in charge. This, coupled with a hawkish ECB and mixed US data saw DXY fall from highs of 103.38 in the European morning to a low of 102.08, with the psychological 102 level the next obvious support. A hawkish ECB, where ...
AUDUSD Soars on RBA Hike, EURUSD underperforms, CAD, GBP, JPY wrap
USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underpe...
Could the Reserve Bank of Australia hike rates further?
The Australian interest rate is currently at 3.85% and the most recent consumer price index (CPI) released at 6.8% which indicates slightly higher than expected inflation growth (expectation was 6.4% with previous data at 6.3%). This puts more focus on the upcoming interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While further rate ...
Hot CPI fails to hold AUDUSD above key level
Australian CPI released today surprised to the upside coming in at 6.8% y/y , well above the consensus of 6.4% which itself was an increase on March’s figure of 6.3% Coming into the figure futures markets had priced in a measly 2.5% chance of a hike next week by the RBA, that changed dramatically with odds jumping to 18.8% for a 25bp hike ac...
AUD analysis – waiting for a catalyst – range trading and mean reversion opportunities
The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting ...
GBPUSD analysis – Is the Bank of England approaching peak rates?
The Bank of England (BoE) is due to release its interest rate decision today, with markets expecting a 12th consecutive hike to take interest rates to 4.50%. There has been increasing speculation that the BoE is reaching its terminal rates and could follow the lead of the US FOMC and the ECB in signaling a slowdown or pause on further rate hikes fo...
Market Analysis 8-12 May 2023
XAUUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. Although last week's closing of the buying pressure bar would indicate a loss of buying momentum due to the weekly selloff. But the price is still moving above the 2000 support, it is very likely that the price will continue to move above the 2000 level ...
ECB hikes rates to 3.75%
Following the lead of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision to hike rates by 25 basis points, taking interest rates in the Eurozone to 3.75% overnight. In the lead-up to the ECB meeting, there was some market speculation for a potential 50bps hike, which saw the EUR/USD trade to a 12-month high, reaching the...
FOMC hikes rates but signals pause
In the most recent meeting, the US Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points, as anticipated, to take interest rates in the US to 5.25%, slightly beyond the terminal rate of 5.1%. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to the key support level of 100.80 which was last reached in April and February 2023, following the release of the rate hike ...
BoJ Governor Ueda’s first monetary policy meeting
The Bank of Japan is due to hold its first monetary policy meeting under new Governor Ueda on the 29th of April 2023. Since his appointment, Governor Ueda has frequently indicated that the BoJ will continue with its current easing stance on monetary policy with targets for long and short-term interest rates. Although headline and core inflation run...
Inflation growth slows for the Australian Economy
The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y was released at 6.3%, lower than the market forecast of 6.5% and from the previous data of 6.8%. With inflation growth on a clear downtrend following its peak of 8.4% in January 2023, this is likely to reduce the need for further rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian...
Market Analysis 24-28 April 2023
XAUUSD Analysis 24 – 28 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a loss of buying momentum. But the price is still above the 1960 support or the last high of the price in the Weekly time frame, which is very likely that the price will continue to swing o...
Asian Session Update – AUD, NZD continue decline, Hot Japan CPI sees Yen strength
Major Asian stock indexes are following the lead from Wall St where US stocks finished broadly lower in a choppy, low volume session as economic news disappointed, Fed talking heads remained hawkish and a mixed batch of earnings. The ASX200 and Nikkei down around 0.24% while the Hang Seng down just over 0.5 a % FX Markets Have mostly c...
Market Analysis 17-21 April 2023 – TH
XAUUSD Analysis 17 – 21 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. As last week's closing of the buying bar was above the 1960 support or the latest high in price on the Weekly timeframe, it indicates the continued buying momentum that will allow the price of gold to continue. It can rise further to test the 2070...
AUD and NZD under pressure on rising US and EU yield expectations
AUD and NZD, being cyclical currencies (cyclical currencies being ones that are extra sensitive to global risk sentiment) took a big hit in Fridays session , dropping 1.1% and 1.3% respectively against the USD and remain under pressure today. Weak retail sales out of the US on Friday didn’t help risk sentiment, but the rout really started when...