News & Analysis

Aussie inflation cools with big miss in CPI print – AUDUSD dumps

28 June 2023 By Lachlan Meakin


Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside.

This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI.

Unsurprisingly a rapid fall in AUDUSD was also a consequence of this market repricing, after finding some support at the 50% retracement level of the June low to highs this week, AUDUSD pushed lower to test the 618% Fibonacci level before finding some buyers. These two levels will be worth watching, whether AUDUSD can regain and again find support at the 50% retracement or that level now becomes resistance and puts the 61.8% retracement level in danger of giving way.

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