Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical Events

US trading thematics Part 3: More than the Trump trade

We've held off making comments about the events of what happened last weekend. Everyone has seen it, everyone knows the horrible scenario that it was but it is probably also meant that we have missed really key economic and fundamental trading reasons U.S. markets are now in a very broad bull market scenario. Inflation It was only 10 weeks ag...

July 17, 2024
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Three Key Things Markets Will Be Watching This Week

As major indices continue to look weak and test key technical levels, ongoing market sentiment is difficult to judge, with several crucial information points coming up over the next few days. #1 The Fed Rate Decision The Federal Reserve's narrative remains hawkish in terms of medium-term interest rates. Friday's PCE data did little to calm fe...

October 30, 2023
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The Economics of Currency Pegs: Stability vs. Risk

A currency peg is a policy in which a country's government or central bank fixes the exchange rate of its currency to the value of another currency or a basket of currencies. The pegged rate is enforced by the country's central bank, which will exchange currency at that rate. Commonly, countries that participate in this practice prefer to peg th...

August 14, 2023
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China in Covid 19 limbo creating headwind for the global economy?

In recent days and weeks there have been rumours that China is beginning to consider an easing of its Covid restrictions. As virtually the last country with extreme Covid restrictions, a shift in policy from China would be a major catalyst for the global markets and economy. Whilst the CCP has not yet announced any actual easing, there are hopes th...

November 9, 2022
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US mid terms loom as a potential catalyst for equities.

The US midterm elections are coming up next week on 8 November and have the potential to have a big say on the direction and volatility of the US and global markets. All the 435 seats in the House of representatives will be decided upon. Currently, the makeup of the house includes 220 Democrats, 212 republicans and 3 vacant seats.   The ...

November 4, 2022
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Oil continues its sell-off as it drops after weaker Chinese and US economic figures

Oil has continued its tumble from its March 2022 high of $131 per barrel down to $82 a barrel. The drop has been in response to weak economic figures from China and the USA which has added to the recessionary anxiety gripping the market. Furthermore, as Iran edges closer to a nuclear deal, the removal of economic sanctions on the country may be ...

August 16, 2022
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What is going on with Taiwan?

What is going on with Taiwan?   Taiwan is back in the news after US speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi visited the country causing a fiery reaction from the mainland of China.   Historical background   In order to understand the causes of the China/Taiwan tension, some historical perspective is needed. The current te...

August 4, 2022
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Wheat Trading Opportunities

Wheat Trading Opportunities   Wheat is a well-known soft commodity that is vital for any kind of bread product. It also has important uses for the feedstock for cattle which is vital in economies with large agricultural sectors. The supply and demand for wheat can be volatile with changes occurring for a multitude of different reasons. The...

July 26, 2022
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The CHF rallies after surprise 50-point interest rate hike

The Swiss National Bank, (SNB) has surprised the market and raised interest rates by 0.5% to combat inflation. The SNB was one of the last central banks holding firm in its dovish stance, however with growing inflation felt now was the time to intervene and raised rates from -0.75% interest to -0.25%. It was the first interest rate rise since 2007 ...

June 17, 2022
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New Zealand see unexpected contraction after Quarter figures released

The New Zealand economy took a hit in the first quarter as Covid 19 ran rampant and interest rates rose as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased interest rates to combat inflation. The contraction was exaggerated as imports were reduced. Growth across the country was slowed. Production based output or the GDP fell by 0.2% which was below the...

June 16, 2022
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Gas and electricity crisis hits the East Coast of Australia

Australians have been hit with a massive spike in gas and electricity bills as the country deals with a sudden shortage in power. Electricity prices were soaring so high and fast that the energy regulator had to step in and place a cap on the price of energy at $40 a gigajoule until 10 June 2022. Causes of the Crisis The supply shock has been...

June 3, 2022
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Russia and Ukraine peace talks end without ceasefire & Bitcoin drops below 40,000 USD

Global indices finished relatively flat compared to recent day's price action on the back of failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and the ECB decision to speed up the ceasing of stimulus support. All eyes were on the USA and their CPI figures which came in as expected with a rise of 0.8% for February and the 12-month figure increased by...

March 11, 2022
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Potential for Ukraine and Russian Negotiations drives a market rebound

The global markets had a strong night of trading on the back of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Equity indices were up, whilst commodities took a breather from their recent highs. Reports coming out of Europe indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has cooled off on the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and is open to d...

March 10, 2022
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Are EV cars inevitable?

Since the recent crisis in Europe, you would have noticed a few things in the stock market which have directly or indirectly affected your normal day to day life, as a motorist one of the first things that you would have taken note of, is the price of fuel. Only a fortnight ago petrol prices for unleaded fuel was sold for $149.99 per litre (APCO se...

March 8, 2022
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Volatile market continues following failed peace talks between Russia and the Ukraine

Global indices were choppy overnight, mainly finishing lower on the back of failed peace talks and Russia continued advances in Ukraine. According to reports from the French government, the Russian president Vladimir Putin intends to take the country by any means and that “the worst is to come”. The reports sent the FTSE 100 down 2.57%. The dec...

March 4, 2022
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