News & Analysis

US stocks finished mixed – Nasdaq surges on NVDA earnings boost – Gold down again

26 May 2023 By Lachlan Meakin

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US indices finished mixed in Thursdays session two up, two down though with an overall positive bias on debt ceiling progress and strong economic data. The Nasdaq easily outperformed as a huge up day from Nvidia (NVDA + 24%) after a positive earnings report saw the tech heavy index surge over 200 points.

­­Strong data was also released easing US recession fears, jobless claims came in at 229k, 20k under forecast and preliminary GDP handily beat forecasts, coming in at 1.3% vs the expected 1.1%. These, coupled with seemingly positive progress in debt ceiling negotiations has see pressure put back on the Fed, with rate hike expectations in June surging to be a 50-50 bet, only a few days ago the market was giving little chance of another hike.

Source: CME Fedwatch tool

FX Markets

USD continued its run up on Thursday, with the Dollar Index  breaking through resistance and hitting a two-and-a-half-month high of 104.310 after positive US data releases resulted in a hawkish shift in pricing of the next Fed decision in June.

AUD and NZD were the G10 underperformers as the Kiwi continues to be hit after the dovish RBNZ 25 bp hike on Wednesday. Highlighting the weakness, AUDUSD and NZDUSD both breached key levels and hit six-month troughs of 0.6499 and 0.6045, respectively. A fall in commodity prices also weighing on the Aussie.

EUR was softer trading between 1.0708-56 after reports that Germany had officially entered a recession. However, EURUSD held just above 1.0700 finding support at the 24th March lows after ECB member Knot said that there was “no sign that underlying inflation is abating and ECB will hold rates at peak for significant time.”

Commodities

Gold again took a leg down, breaking the minor support at 1952 as improved risk sentiment and rising US yields on the back of strong US data saw the sellers take charge. The next real support for XAUUSD is at 1935, which it is looking likely to test in the near future going from recent price action.

Despite recession fears subsiding somewhat, Crude oil tumbled through the session on Thursday with the downside beginning in the European morning amid comments from Russian Deputy PM Novak downplaying the prospect of further OPEC+ production cuts at the June 4th meeting. A Strong USD also weighing on USOUSD.

Today’s Economic calendar sees Aussie retail sales which will be one to watch for Aussie traders and later in the session the Feds “favoured” inflation gauge, the core PCE price index. With the Money markets pricing in 50-50 odds of a hike or hold at the next FOMC meeting, there should be some exciting market action on this release.

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