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Global markets enter the new week in a risk on tone with as market participants are positioning for no more rate hikes out of the Federal Reserve and pricing in cuts from Q2 2024. In last week’s low volatility, holiday shortened week this translated to a steady rise in equities (DOW hitting 3-month highs), a steady decline in the US dollar (DXY hitting 3-month lows) and a multi-year low in the “fear index” with the VIX dropping to its lowest point since 2020.
With traders back at their desks and some key economic figures due this week we could see this narrative tested and likely see a bit more volatility in markets to finish the month off.
Charts to watch this week
The Euro drifted higher against the USD last week, EURUSD still respecting its upward trend channel and managing to break and hold the psychological 1.09 level. In the week ahead we have some high impact inflation related figures for EURUSD traders to navigate. Starting with Spanish and German inflation on Wednesday and followed by the Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE reading on Friday.
Key levels this week in EURUSD will be the 1.09 level to the downside and the May and August resistance level at 1.1065 to the upside.
Gold saw a positive week as the bulls took advantage of a weak dollar and were encouraged by US yields holding steady. XAUUSD made two attempts to breach the October high resistance at 2009 USD an ounce but was rejected both times. We enter the new week with XAUUSD again drifting higher to that level and it will be a key level to watch. If XAUUSD can take this level and get some support a test of the May highs at 2067 is the next obvious technical resistance level. If 2009 holds as resistance and XAUUSD is rebuffed again, the support at 1962 will be the key level to watch to the downside.
Crude Oil enters the week after another down week, making it five in a row to be sitting just above 75 USD a barrel. This week is an interesting one though with the delayed OPEC+ meeting taking place on Thursday. There is a possibility that Saudi Arabia and Russia could extend or deepen their voluntary curbs to support the crude price, there is also the (smaller) possibility that no changes are made, seeing further pressure on USOUSD that could see a test of the major support at 67 USD a barrel in the near future.
The weeks full calendar can be seen at the following link:
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